WASHINGTON – The National Association of Home Builders has released a forecast indicating it expects new home sales will increase 22% in 2013 to 447,000, following a 20% increase in 2012.
“There are a lot of existing homeowners who have been waiting for two or three years or more for house prices to stabilize. And for their own job and economic outlook to stabilize,” chief economist David Crowe told National Mortgage News, an affiliate of Credit Union Journal. “I think that is where we are getting the current demand and I think that will continue,” he added.
In making this 2013 forecast, Crowe is not betting that banks or other mortgage lenders will loosen their underwriting standards. He is betting that people who can qualify for a mortgage loan are realizing that it is a good time to sell their home and buy a new one.
This view of the market is borne out in a November survey by Fannie Mae that found 23% of respondents believe it is a good time to sell. That is a five percentage point increase from the October survey and the highest level since June 2010 – when the company started the survey.
In addition, 51% of the respondents said it would be easy for them to get a mortgage, up from 41% in November 2011.